Investment and Financial Advice

The end of the January effect?

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 14:45:00 +0000

Do today mark the end of the January effect whereby fund managers have rebuild the stock portfolio that they have sold in the previous year to take losses so that they can claim income tax deduction for this year?

As what one of Bloomberg's reporter have noted, it has been 2 years and we are still talking about the Greece debt issue now. Itlay Spain and the rest of the European nations are looking to get worse in the upcoming months ahead.

Fundamentals have not caught up with the reality as of just yet. US GDP numbers although did come better then expected, but underlying it is a strong inventory restocking that is not sustainable.

China despite it's strong growth is a big question mark after this year's leadership transition, as they might make it smooth for the markets and the population which is getting discontended with the rising income inequality.

In the Middle East, Iran is set to create more chaos as they would not sit back and let Hyperinflation set in. They might even create a war, causing instability in the region.

Given the magnitude of problems that are going by, I am staying at the sidelines with my cash

Mapletree Industrial Trust reports stronger DPU

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 13:15:00 +0000

Mapletree Industrial Trust reports higher DPU of 2.06 cents per share this FY 2011 3Q. This was on the back of higher Portfolio occupancy and positive rental revisions.

However, one should note that the gross rental rates for it's portfolio is treading down at $1.53, down from the peak of $1.54 from the previous quarter.

In addition, rental renewals for it's lease is something to note. They are having 28.5% that is due for renewal for Fiscal Year 2012 and 30.4% for Fiscal Year 2013. The period when the economy is expected to grow at a slower pace and Europe is set to go into an recession. A very poor timing to do so, although the governments around the world is set to pump in more money if they see weaker economic growth for the next 2 years.

However, this measures would take time to implement and MIT might not be able to take advantage of the upswing. Rental rates for it's Business Park segment fell from $4.57 to $4.13 for renewals, although rent rates for it's flatted factories Stack-up and Warehouses are up.

Watch out for one of it's biggest tenant that takes up 1% of their revenue which is RIM, the maker of Blackberry, they are looking very weak now and might do burst soon. MIT would see a 1% fall in their earnings if RIM fails or pulls out from Singapore. They might face higher cost as they are going to enhance their asset buildings in Toa Payoh and Woodlands.

They would face bigger headwinds in the foreseeable future and for that, I would resist buying this stock as of just yet. Stock price fell in recent days from $1.08 to $1.06.

Obama wants to create jobs and increase equality

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 03:03:00 +0000

Obama wants to raise taxes for companies that are outsourcing the jobs out of US and increase subsidies for those who are bringing jobs back to US.

He also wants to simplify the ladder for workers to retain their skills in order to take advantage of the job openings for the engineering industry. He is ending subsides for the Oil and Gas industry and is trying his best to fund the renewable energy industry.

Taxes for the wealthy is set to rise to at least 30%. This is after Buffett created a debate about the low tax rates that he gets as compared to his secretary, Debbie Bosanek. She is set to sit next to first lady's box in the House of Representatives for Obama's annual address. He is also clamping down on the workers who are earning big bucks in Wall Street and wants to remove moral hazard in this industry. Refusing to bail out any companies that are on the brink of bankruptcy.

He is using the cost savings from the withdrawal of troops in Iraqi and Afghanistan, to build infrastructure and to pay down the government debt. For the housing front, he is planning to help owners to refinance their houses at a lower interest rate and to remove those misleading rates and risky mortgages that the industry is known for.

Most bearish call ever I saw

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:39:00 +0000

This is the most bearish call by stock market expert Joe Granville. He is well-known for successfully predicting the stock market treads, with him saying that the market will rally for the next two years way back in 2009, which pans out to be true. For this call, he is warning a sharp correction soon, using his volume indicator. I picked up this pierce of news from Investment Moats, one website that I just picked up recently.

Taiwan Trip Day 3 & 4 Kaoshiong

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 15:32:00 +0000

Heading to Taitung

Farmland

She look like Jap right???

Hitting Taitung

Zhiben Hot Spring Area

Invaded someone's house by accident and was chased by 3 dogs!!!!

The Night Market here was not so strong

The very nice and very powdery Mochi

Hot Spring water from volcano

Does the egg taste different if you boil using volcano water?

Taitung MRT station, heading to Kaoshiong

Kaoshiong! Very modern!!!

Nice toilet at Hostel

Steamroom!!!!

Jacuzzi

Taiwan trip (Taroko Natural Reserve) Day 2 & 3

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 15:45:00 +0000

Translation wasn't perfect but while at least you understand!!!!

Countryside

Rice fields

Ultimate polluting power plant

Nice Sea!!!

Cement plant

Mini Soursop (Custard Apple)

Auto butt spray toilet

This steamboat meal was not very interesting

We went on a cycling trail after meal time, Bicycle was provided by the Hostel (Wonstar Hostel)

Their departmental store

Ice-Cream!!!

Night falls at 5PM and morning is as early as 5AM

Some Night Market in Hualien

Hostel breakfast

Taxi to Taroko Nat Reserve

Rocks being deformed

Clear blue waters

Road was closed for 2 hours for repair due to falling rocks ytd

How the dog picture came about

I walked across this bridge and it started to sway!!!

There used to be swallows in the caves but now........

It is apparently a picture of a face, see the nose and the mouth??

This bridge was named after the story whereby the president of Taiwan dream of his mother when he slept there

The taxi driver (Tour guide) told us that the natives had deeper facial features which makes them prettier. Okay la, I agree to that, she looks not bad???

Mexico Chicken

Mexico Beef

Phew, if we were a little earlier, I think I would have died!

Went to pray

A little of an engineering feet???

200 men died while trying to build the trail. They had to climb the mountains and drop down from ropes.

This shrine is built in memorial of them. It was rebuild twice as it was crushed by falling rocks

I have got the Taxi driver's contact, he is charging like NT3,000 for the whole day. Quite worth it, given that he explained all the history behind the names and was very helpful!!!

Taiwan Trip (Xi Men Night Market) (Day 1/8)

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 13:28:00 +0000

International Lunch on SIA flight

Decided to have some red wine

Reaching Taoyuan Airport

Touchdown!!!

Train Station at Taoyuan Airport

Taiwan's High Speed Rail

Dinner at Xi Men area!

Fried Oyster omelette (Their style is a bit more wet than Singapore's)

Nothing Special (it was like Roti Prata)

Milk Cubes fried in flour, not bad I would say

Snaking queues for this Chicken!!!

Sushi was damn nice as it was damn fresh!!!

Zynga falls below IPO price for first day of trading

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 02:38:00 +0000

Zynga's share price popped at $11 for the first trade, after being delayed for 20 minutes for the first trade. The stock price represents a 10% jump for the game marker company. However, this small rise in stock price is nothing as compared to the rise for hot stocks like Google when they first listed.

Zynga shares ended lower for the first trading day at $9.50, trading as low as $9 at one point.

The fall in share price was predictable given the weak market outlook and the weak fundamentals that the company has as pointed out by an analyst that they derive over 95% of their revenue from Facebook and sales of in-game items.

Neither are their peers faring well, with Groupon and Pandora hovering near their IPO prices. Zynga if successful would have a share performance which is similar to that of other game markers like EA and Take-Two, with performance very tied to the success of their games which is hihgly unpredictable. Unlike Google which has a product that is used by many and is a cash cow likewise Microsoft's Windows and Office with their enterprise customers.

Advice for investors is that unless you are an expert in trading game markers, avoid this stock as you would likely get burned.

Zynga and Jive IPO

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 02:02:00 +0000

GBoth Jive software and Zynga is set to go live this week, with Jive being on the stock market just recently and Zynga to be listed on Friday.

Jive Software Inc. (NASDAQ:JIVE) raised $161.3 million in its initial public offering, 38 percent more than first sought after pricing the shares above the marketed range.

The company, which makes social-networking software for businesses, sold 13.4 million shares at $12 apiece yesterday. It had planned to offer 11.7 million for $8 to $10 each, according to regulatory filings. The stock started trading 2 days ago on the Nasdaq under the symbol JIVE.

Its software allows employees to collaborate on projects and communicate with customers. Revenue at the company, which counts NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ:NTAP), Nike (NYSE:NKE), and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) among its clients, has surged in the past three years.

Jive’s net losses widened to $38.1 million in the first nine months of 2011, from $20.9 million a year earlier, while sales climbed 73 percent to $54.8 million. The top end of the originally proposed IPO range valued Jive at $573 million, or 8.3 times sales in the year through September 30. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and IBM (NYSE:IBM), both named as competitors in Jive’s IPO filing, had a ratio of 3 and 2.1 for the year through September, respectively.

Zynga's sales more than doubled through September, to $829 million, and it has earned $121 million since the start of 2010, according to its SEC filing. What is more, the top five games on Facebook are Zynga titles: CityVille, CastleVille, FarmVille, Zynga Poker and Words With Friends.

For investors, this is a warning not to participate in this company. Other competitors like Microsoft is set to enter the market and strangle it to death. In addition, it's track record is worse than Zynga which has doubled sales through September, to $829 million, and it has earned $121 million since the start of 2010, according to its SEC filing. Despite the initial pop that Jive have and is now trading at $15, $3 more than it's IPO price of $12. Given the current market situation, it is set to fall below it's IPO price soon.

Either is Zynga a good stock to hold in the future. It's overreliance on Facebook as it's main revenue stream is far too risky. In addition, user activity has fallen for some of the games that they have said to be the top 5 games on Facebook.

Zynga's business model may do good in an recession as it allows users to pay small amount of money to feel good. However, given that the traffic growth for their games would slow over time and that current paying users would get bored after a while, it is difficult to keep coming out with new items and themes to attract users to part with their money without making the games being too bloated. The revenue from advertising is way too little to replace the revenue from the sale of it's products. In addition, advertising revenue is fluctuates quickly with the economic cycles and is typically the department to be cut.

Given the strong hype over the two IPO, one may try to profit from the initial spike in share price. However for the long run, I would not put this two shares in my portfolio.

The insides of the Standard Charted Marathon (Timing System)

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 13:07:00 +0000

I went to work in the timing section for the Standard Charted Marathon 2011. It was under iSports Pte Ltd. The experience was cool and something that one would never realise the hardwork that it takes to run the event unless one becomes the backstage crew and support such events. U arrived at their office as early as 4.30PM on Saturday to get the timing mats loaded on the truck. After loading up the mats, we were briefed on the roues that we had to go before getting our dinner and setting off at 8PM to deliver the mats to it's various locations During the delivery process, there were little hiccups as there was a slight drizzle which helped to reduce the traffic along East Coast Park Expressway. The little hiccups that happened along the way was the repaving of the road that we require to pass in order to deliver the mats at Gardens by the Bay and the closing of the gate at the other alternative routes. The other hiccup was that there was a mat that was odd-shaped, hence we had to get it replaced. We ended our work at 1.30AM, which was considered quite early. Afterwhich, we retreated in our car and parked in an open-air carpark and slept until the next morning at about 4.40AM at which we had to prepare to collect the mats from those that have started the full marathon. We started collecting the maps at 5.50AM, whereby the last runner was being declared. We proceeded with breakfast afterwhich, it was kindly sponsored my our team leader Jason (Muffin) from iSports. Afterwhich, we proceeded to East Coast park to collect one of the first few mats. We were all very tired and slept during the car ride. The wait at East Coast park was long as the diversion was delayed by an hour. We ended 2 hours before planned and went home from iSport's office afterwhich. Kudos to the backstage crews working quietly to make this event a success. I did not know the amount of backscene work when I ran for my 10KM run 2 years ago!

GE 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Tue, 17 May 2011 16:28:00 +0000

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Mun Siong's IPO

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 10:19:00 +0000

With 2 large IPOs happening in the last week, the IPO calendar is much lighter with 2 smaller firms trying to capitalize on hot market sentiments to get some capital. While i will recommend investors to invest in the previous two IPOs given the strong backing (MapleTree has Temasek, while GLP has GIC) that they have and the diversified customer base they have. However i beg to differ in Mum Siong's case.

As mentioned in their prospects (Pg 101), 22.5% of their revenue is derived from Electrical Engineering and that segment contributes 39% of their profits. However, one must also take note that majority of this segment's revenue and profits (66%) is derived from one customer (Mitsubishi) through one project which ends in FY 2010. What happens next when the contract ends? There is no backlog of orders to ensure the orders keep coming for this segment of the business. There are also no maintenance contracts which will further ensure the sustainability of their profit and revenue.

For the Mechanical Engineering segment, it is another risky segment for Mun Siong. Because 73% of their profits and revenue is derived from one customer (Shell). Furthermore, the huge spike of about 30% is due to one project and they did not state the end date of the project, giving rise to doubts over the sustainability of their profits. The 42% that they have with Shell that comes from maintenance is something that the business should look forward to getting more of. Similarity for Exxo's case.

They also mentioned that 50% of their revenue is derived from projects. Mostly are one time off project. This throws further uncertainty in the business.

Lastly, the IPO price is way too expensive. They have stated that the NAV of their shares is 8.38 cents, whereas their IPO price of 20 cents is 286.92% more expensive. I do not see the reason for such a high premium, even MapleTree Industrial Trust's IPO is just 4% premium.

Just my two cents worth, hope it aids in your investment choice. However, please refer to your professional adviser if you have doubts. I bear no responsibility for any loss incurred arising from my advice.

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Long due techincal rebound was long due but too much upswing

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 09:33:00 +0000

The US 1 week rally was much anticipated. But it has rally too much and I think that a bubble is enough to burst it. Watch for your portfolio, don't mix emotions with investment.
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Talking about that, I think that AIG ought to fail as they had never learned their lesson, although they are deeply woven into the financial markets in the world.

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700 post and some updates

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 07:26:00 +0000

This is the 700th post. Nothing much to blog except today's sports day was damn boring.
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But I just realise that Mr Goh, Mr Ng and Mr Amos Goh invests in stocks. The school is getting more and more exciting by day. Also, I have so little $$$ to invest in rock bottom stock prices

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Some Stan chart run pics

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 07:15:00 +0000

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Just finished 10KM

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 02:39:00 +0000

Just finished the Stand Chart 10KM clocking in at 1H 18Mins. THis year was not so good, went to the toilet as the race begain.
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Some pics

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 13:06:00 +0000

Well, some pics of my peeling face after the parade
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See my nose

See the diff? The whiter one was covered by the sleeves

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Went out with Vicky

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 06:15:00 +0000

I went out with Vicky yesterday. We went to Novena to eat at the food court. The food was great. We talked for more than 2 hours at the food court, eating and talking at the same time. We shared same views on business education and many more. I can say that he had grown both physically and mentally.
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Second day after that parade. Skin is starting to peel. Man. Hope that the NCC Change of Command parade's video would be burned into a CD and send to us via mail. Please send over via mail, if not go and collect very troublesome.

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Change of command parade resheral

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 14:12:00 +0000

Today was the change of command parade rehersal. Food was like shit, getting sunburns everywhere. Tmr going to get worse. Parade starts at 5.30PM.
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At night even better, my sis went out with my cousin, come back only scold me, tired when sleep la, don't accompany her go here go there. What is the point of making yourself tired to entertain someone. CRAZY. Coming to snatch Singapore's rich bowl so more. Ask her go back Malaysia and study there or Aust also can. Don't come SG CAN LIAO. IRRIATING.

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Aunties nowsdays

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:33:00 +0000

Was reading this post about fat and old aunties blocking MRT doors. Look at one of the suggestion one of the reader gave.
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whatswrongwithyouman said

SMRT should invest in Automatic-Tear-Gas release, once MRT arrives, tear gas erupts from the doors and wardens use electric shock sticks to beat anyone standing outside.

Then armored soldiers carrying mimosa shields would escort alighting passengers.

Whats wrong with such an ideal man?

http://singaporeseen.stomp.com.sg/singaporeseen/viewContent.jsp?commentPageNo=3&id=43144#comment

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Prison Break

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 10:14:00 +0000

Just finished watching prison break E12. It was nice. Self sold out on them. Giving them plain paper. Took this test and got this results
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Which Prison Break Character Are You?

More on Prison Break. Created by BuddyTV

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Some funny moments of price is right

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 09:49:00 +0000

Was surfing the net for Price is Right theme song and saw some funny clips from past eposide.
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Look at Bob's expression

This lucky women

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Played C&C3

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 09:38:00 +0000

I played C&C3 for so long and this is the most fun part of it all. Having captured 2 of the enemy base and being able to build all their buildings. How I pulled it off? Well, I had a engineer in the plane and some bomber. Droped engineer off at the contruction place and capture it, after which get it out of there with bombers protecting it. Here are some screenshots
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Right this is ...

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:54:00 +0000

Well, I read an news headline saying Palin was offered a job in a porno video with her husband. She was being offered USD$2M and her husband USD$100,000. The response from people were mixed
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Some said it was utter disrespect some said she looked too old to take this kind of video. The offer was send to her office on Nov 6. She had yet to comment.

Via Current / Digg

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Start of Hoildays

noreply@blogger.com (Chew Jek Hui) — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 08:50:00 +0000

Whooo, it is the start of the hoildays. Free from all the stuff that teacher might teach. But I shall me missing the following teachers whom are not following up next year. Ms Tan, Miss Leow (Her Catered food was nice) and the rest of the teachers (whom I cannot remember) The usual routine again. Wake up, play some games watch news and then play more games and sleep.
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Went to the library yesterday and realised how much I had to catch up in the finanical world when I was mugging for exams. Read 2 copies of mag and then wrote down my research. Oh ya, also got a line. But the line is the prepaid card which only has 10 value and now left 9.68. those whom want to sms me can ask me for the number of Facebook.

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